As is often the case, I accept that I can be wrong. Merely look at the title of this piece and it doesn't take much to see how wrong I can be. Chris Nelson, the Rockies third basemen, for MVP?? He has a .290 / 9 /47 slash, doesn't even play full-time, and is a below average defender. Of course he can't be MVP. Yet Chris Nelson does something better than anyone in the National League, and if it wasn't for that drive home from work two weeks ago, and that inane callers empty comment, I may never have known about it.
Before I go off onto this journey, I want to share a story that my brilliantly entertaining co-host Earl ( @verdantdude ) shared on our show once or twice.
The story goes that in 1925, at the age of 38, Ty Cobb was speaking with a reporter, and expressing his disdain for all the attention that sluggers such as Babe Ruth were receiving. Cobb, considered his "style" of playing baseball to be more strategic or perhaps scientific, and that he could hit home runs "whenever he wished". To back up his boast, Cobb went out and had himself a 6-6 day, including 3 home runs. He then followed it up with 2 more home runs the next day. Point proven, Cobb returned to his prior approach to hitting. Of course it should be noted that many writers including ESPNs Dave Schoenfield will look to refute this story, but any true fan of baseball can accept a little "Lie Within the Lore". As someone once said, if the amount of people who said they were at the game when Maris hit homer number 61 they'd have had to have added a few hundred-thousand seats in Yankee Stadium to accommodate them all.
No one can discount Cobb's mastery as a hitter and even if the story wasn't true, it probably could be true. Using a more contemporary example, there are countless stories of Ichiro Suzuki mechanically drilling home run after home run in batting practice, only to return to his own "style" of baseball during the game. He himself explained it in a New York Times piece, and the reasoning sounds eerily familiar to the Cobb story:
"Chicks who dig home runs aren't the ones who appeal to me. I think there's sexiness in infield hits because they require technique. I'd rather impress the chicks with my technique than with my brute strength. Then, every now and then, just to show I can do that, too, I might flirt a little by hitting one out."
Unbeknownst to many fans is the fact that Ichiro, the man with the sweet left-handed swing that produced over 3,800 hits in Japan and the United States is actually a natural right-handed hitter. He taught himself to be a full-time left-handed hitter to be 2 steps closer to first base, which was better suited for his hitting method.
I bring all this up, because these 'strategic' hitters, much like a world class poker player, are often looking for that advantage or the "tell". And hitting with runners on base is likely more advantageous to the hitter than hitting with the bases empty. The pitchers focus is split, the infielders are leaning one way or the other, the outfielders are taking extra steps, perhaps not always the right way. In Ichiro's first season with the Mariners he proved he was able to exploit these weaknesses better than anyone as his batting average with the bases empty was .313, yet in 137 at bats with runners on base (ROB) he hit an amazing .420. With runners in scoring position (RISP) his average rose to a remarkable .445. With numbers like that its not at all surprising that Ichiro won the MVP. But lets examine a bit deeper.
In 2001, Ichiro had the following at bats:
59 times with a runner at 2nd base
29 times with runners at 1st and 2nd
18 times with runners at 1st and 3rd
8 times with runners at 2nd and 3rd
12 times with a runner on 3rd
11 times with bases loaded
Subtracting for home runs (in which he effectively knocked himself in), in the above at bats Ichiro had 61 RBI, or what I call BKI (Baserunners Knocked-In). Thus, Ichiro had at bats (i.e. not including walks) with 315 runners on base, including 156 in scoring position and he had 61 BKI. That equates to 19% of the runners on base and 39% of the runners in scoring position. Numbers like that are equivalent to the 2012 production of.... nope, not Ryan Braun, not Miguel Cabrera, and not even Joey Votto.... but of..... say Coco Crisp.
Now I'm not trying to say Ichiro wasn't an amazing player. His offensive abilities and his defensive prowess are world-class, yet as the object of baseball is to merely outscore your opponent. However all the hits that Ichiro had in 2001 weren't as productive as one may think. Its hard to fathom that that such a ridiculous batting average with RISP of .445 wouldn't lead to record-breaking production. Of course my first thought is that most of his hits were singles that didn't score runners from second or doubles that didn't score runners from first, and that may be the case. But the point of this piece is NOT to discount the amazing achievement of certain players like Ichiro, yet rather its to point out those that are producing beyond what you may otherwise see in the leaderboards.
Case in point, John Jaso of Seattle. The first thing that I think of when his name comes up is his OBA skills. Good catcher, generally hit about 25 doubles and 12 HR in the minors, and he's got close to a .400 on-base % this year, so his pitch recognition skills are surely above average. Yet I don't think of him as an RBI guy. He's not a full-time player as yet, and he's still 6th or 7th on his team in RBIs, while manager Eric Wedge keeps rolling out Miguel Olivo and his .228 OBA. That's right..... the starting catcher in Seattle has an OBA about half that of Jaso. Yet OBA is surely not the only skill that Jaso possesses. Last year in Tampa, the young catcher hit a pitiful .167 with RISP. Though young and talented, Tampa traded him to Seattle for Josh Lueke, a pitcher one accused, and generally convicted of and sent to jail for rape while in the Texas organization. So while Lueke had an awful season in the minors and in his 3 awful innings in Tampa, Jaso seemingly used his pitch-recognition skills to drive in runs in key situations. He's hitting .394 with RISP and in plate appearances with a runner at 3rd or with runners at first and third he's hitting .667. But ok, its only 18 at bats..... yet in those at bats he's had 27 runners on base and 18 in scoring position and he has 19 BKI (again..... base-runners knocked in). All told, the catcher with the good-eye who was traded for a convict has a 22% TROB (scoring 22% of all runners on base when he is at bat) and 48% TRISP (scoring 48% of all runners in scoring position when he is at bat).
At this point, those numbers may not mean much because you probably need some comparisons. So for 2012, here goes:
John Jaso - 22% TROB / 48% TRISP
Prince Fielder - 23% TROB / 52% TRISP
Adrian Beltre - 18% TROB / 38% TRISP
Mike Trout - 21% TROB / 41% TRISP
Derek Jeter - 15% TROB / 28% TRISP
Bryce Harper - 12% TROB / 26% TRISP
(TROB = Total runners knocked in that were on base during a players at bat)
(TRISP = Total runners knocked in that were in scoring position during a players at bat)
And for those Yankee fans who cry that A-Rod is "the worst clutch hitter ever!!", well, he's not the worst, but for the money............
Alex Rodriguez - 14% TROB / 28% TRISP
Not too spectacular. Yet in the midst of a great season his teammate.....
Robinson Cano - 13% TROB / 32% TRISP
Not much better. Lets have some more fun looking at the incredibly consistent Robby Cano:
2010: 626 AB, 41 Doubles, 29 Homers, .319 average
2011: 623 AB, 46 Doubles, 28 Homers, .302 average
2012: 572 AB, 42 Doubles, 30 Homers, .297 average
Simply amazing stats for any hitter, but even more impressive for a gold glove caliber 2B. Hard to be more consistent than that. But how about if I throw in one more stat:
2010: 109 RBI
2011: 118 RBI
2012: 78 RBI (on pace for 84)
And here's why:
2010: 20% TROB / 40% TRISP
2011: 23% TROB / 51% TRISP
2012: 13% TROB / 32% TRISP
Quite simply Cano is just not driving in runners in those situations as he has in the past. So while his overall numbers are consistent, he's simply not being as "productive".
And that brings us to Mr. Nelson and his NL Leading 25% TROB.
Yeah, Chris Nelson is leading the National League in knocking in the most runners (BKI) who are on base (TROB) when he receives an at-bat. Sure it may only be a point or so higher than players like Mauer, David Ortiz, Cargo and Fielder..... but you'd expect solid production in key situation from those hitters. Yet Chris Nelson..... probably not the first guy that comes to mind. Nelson's numbers, just like Cano's, show that productivity isn't something that can be seen by looking at ones overall stat line. And Ichiro's RISP number in his MVP season also shows that productivity is a bit more complex than what a single stat can show. The classic definition of productivity means generating more output with the same, or lesser, input. Nelson's 2012 season is therefore a very productive one. Surely a lot more than people recognize.
Here are a few other players whose TROB and TRISP numbers stand out:
Kyle Seager -22% TROB / 42% TRISP - (similar to teammate Jaso he's having a productive year)
Paul Konerko - 15% TROB / 36% TRISP - (I expected a bit higher rate)
Brandon Inge - 21% TROB / 40% TRISP - (amazing for a .226 hitter)
Giancarlo Stanton - 18% TROB / 41% TRISP - (Puts Inge in perspective??)
The Best:
Joey Votto - 64% TRISP
Josh Hamilton - 28% TROB
Special Mention:
Miguel Montero - 24% TROB / 55% TRISP
And of course..... The Worst:
Dernard Span - 13% TRISP
Zack Cozart - 7% TROB
Special Mention:
Jeff "WTF" Francouer - 10% TROB / 23% TRISP
For fun I decided to take a look at some of the games most well-regarded clutch hitters (all career numbers):
Willie McCovey - 20% TROB / 44% TRISP
Eddie Murray - 19% TROB / 43% TRISP
Roberto Clemente - 19% TROB / 41% TRISP
And for all of his opinion of who should make the Hall of Fame:
Reggie Jackson - 18% TROB / 39% TRISP
To put Jackson in perspective, his numbers show that Eddie Murray, who had a well-earned reputation as a "clutch" hitter, knocked in 120 more runs in similar situations as Mr. October.
Jacksons numbers are more in line with another 'underperformer'
Jermaine Dye - 17% TROB / 36% TRISP
Yet even Jermaine Dye's performance far outpaces the worst of the so-called "power hitters". Though he had a rather short career of 9 seasons, Richard Hidalgo had 20 home runs in 4 of them including 44 in 2000, however he ended up with a 16% TROB and a 33% TRISP.
Other players of note:
Pat Tabler, who famously had a .489 career batting average with the bases load. Yet even that only pushed his career numbers to: 18% TROB / 37% TRISP. But please note, those career numbers are actually very good for a player who wasn't known as a power hitter.
Rennie Stennett is known as the only player since 1900 to get 7 hits in a non-extra inning game. However the Pittsburgh infielder should be known for something else, as he has the highest spread of batting average with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) compared to at bats with no RISP. Stennett hit .312 with RISP compared to .263 in other at bats, a difference of .049. On the opposite side of the spectrum is another former Pittsburgh player Al Martin, who surely was not a bad player, evidenced by 6 seasons in which he hit over .280. Yet for some reason with runners in scoring position Martin had a career batting average of only .242 (see the comparison below).
Al Martin - 4,242 AB 132 Home Runs, .276 / .339 / .444
Rennie Stennett - 4,521 AB 41 Home Runs, .274 / .304 / .359
You would think that the guy with the 91 more home runs and almost a 100 points higher in his slugging percentage would be so much more productive. However, here is one more stat:
Al Martin - 485 RBI
Rennie Stennett - 432 RBI
A lot closer than the basic stat line would suggest.... and here's why:
Al Martin - 15% TROB / 31% TRISP
Rennie Stennett - 17% TROB / 43% TRISP
The primary difference is clearly the percentage of runners knocked in (BKI) with runners in scoring position (TRISP). And just for fun, lets compare the light-hitting Rennie Stennett to some of the games greats
Rennie Stennett - 17% TROB / 43% TRISP
Eddie Murray - 19% TROB / 43% TRISP
Roberto Clemente - 19% TROB / 41% TRISP
Reggie Jackson - 18% TROB / 39% TRISP
That's production Rennie!!
Awwww, he looks embarrassed.
And finally..... who are the best hitters. The men who knocked in the most runners who were on base when they were at bat (TROB) or who knocked in the most runners when at bat with runners in scoring position (TRISP). [Please note that complete data on players like Gherig, Ruth, Dimaggio, Williams were not available. In addition, I do not include players like Bonds or Manny for 'obvious' reasons.] So.......... here are....
The BEST:
First, the Colorado boys (dilute if you wish):
Helton - 22% TROB / 47% TRISP
Walker - 20% TROB / 44% TRISP
And now that that's out of the way.........
6) Mo Vaughn - 21% / 43%
5) Mike Sweeney - 21% / 43% (How 'bout that!!)
4) Willie McCovey - 20% / 44%
3) Willie Mays - 19% / 46%
2) Hank Aaron - 20% / 46%
And if you didn't know, ya SHOULDA known.
1) Mickey Mantle - 20% / 47%
With Mantle, there is so often a bit of lie within the lore. But clearly there's a lot of reasons for the lore.
Thanks for listening,
Colonel Sunday
Just Talking to the Cornfield is baseball talk show that often goes horribly wrong. Join Earl and the Colonel as they talk about baseball and all things baseball-related. We're mostly on Sunday nights at 9PM EST, but sometimes we prefer to do a post-Happy Hour show on Friday nights because normally we're idiots. But after a few cocktails we're geniuses. Until we listen to the show the next day. Sigh
SundayColonel@aol.com
@JTTTCColonel (Colonel)
@VerdantDude (Earl)
Earl N Colonel (Facebook)
Sundays 9 PM on Talk Shoe:
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I don't get it. ;)
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