Sunday, May 12, 2013

Is it Time to Follow the Indians??


Folks, you know…. The last thing I’d ever imagine myself doing is writing an article on the Cleveland Indians.   No offense to the team that is so rich in baseball heritage, or the fine city it’s in.    I’ve just never considered myself to be a Cleveland fan.    And well, perhaps there are some good reasons.     First, I started watching baseball when I was 6, around 1973.     Even though I was a young kid, I was already an avid baseball card collector, and I knew statistics and surely knew who the league leaders were.   Not too many players with Indians caps were on those “League Leaders” baseball cards.     The team’s “stars” were the under-performing young outfielder Charlie Spikes and a couple of old starting pitchers, who also happened to be brothers from North Carolina, one of them whose name was Gaylord.       Second of all, the team just wasn’t very good.      In the next 20 years they finished 6th or 7th thirteen times, and 4th or 5th seven other times.      In fact, during that time they actually only had one winning season.    

Even as a little kid, I was always fixated on learning as much as I could about baseball, and so naturally I like to do research on teams, and their history.    I learned of a few misfortunes that sort of turned me off to the Indians, some accidental, some not, but all very unfortunate.     For example, I learned that the only Major Leaguer to have lost his life on the field was a shortstop named Ray Chapman who was hit square in the head by submariner Carl Mays.     Then recall the most famous catch in baseball history, and as we all know there was a Mays involved in that play too.   A long fly ball in the World Series by Cleveland slugger Vic Wertz run down by the Say Hey Kid Willie Mays.   Ouch.

The Indians were also known for the lopsided trades, but of course, not in their favor.    Rocky Colavito was famously, and curiously traded after two consecutive 40 home run seasons for outfielder Harvey Kuenn, who spent only one season for Cleveland before being traded away.    The trading imbalance continued to plague the Indians, who actually received the aforementioned Charlie Spikes in a deal with the Yankees for Graig Nettles, who went onto 5 All-Star games and two top-10 finishes in the AL MVP race as a Yankee.    Yankees also received first base slugger Chris Chambliss and swingman Dick “Dirt” Tidrow from the Indians, two very important pieces of the late 70’s World Championship teams.  

Not to be outdone, the Red Sox also made a big trade with the Indians, receiving Dennis Eckersley who went onto win 20 games for the Sawx the next season, for Rick Wise, who went on to LOSE 19 games for the Indians.    In that same trade Cleveland also received Bo Diaz, who had a decent career, but is also remembered for being killed on the roof of his own house in Caracas when his satellite dish fell on top of him.    But as most of us know, that wasn’t the only tragedy to befall a Cleveland player.   Twenty years ago this March, Cleveland relievers Steve Olin and Tim Crews lost their lives during a spring training boating accident.

So it’s easy to see why a non-Ohioan would find it hard to become a fan.   Thing is, it’s really a shame because Cleveland does have some incredibly noble distinctions.    They were the first American League team to integrate, with the Hall of Famer Larry Doby joining the team in 1947.    They were also the first to have an African-American manager, when Frank Robinson took the post in 1975.   

And every once in a while, Cleveland would add a player that would spark up intrigue.   Similar to the Tigers Mark Fidrych in 1976, Cleveland’s “Super” Joe Charboneau was all the rage in 1980.   He was the epitome of the blue collar guy, opening beer bottles with his eye-sockets, fixing a broken nose with a pair of pliers, but the guy could also hit, and hit he did.    In his only full-season, his rookie year of 1980, Charboneau led the Indians with 23 home runs, more than twice the next highest teammate (future Indians manager Mike Hargrove who had 11).    He was one of 3 players to hit a homer in the 3rd Left Field deck at Yankee Stadium, Jimmy Foxx and Frank Howard being the other two.   I can remember watching Charboneau run the bases after that home run, almost losing his place as he kept staring at where the ball landed.   But he wasn’t just a slugger, as he finished the year with a .289 average.    Unfortunately Charboneau hurt his back sliding in a mud-soaked infield the following spring-training and he was never the same.

I often wonder how different baseball history would be had George Steinbrenner been successful at purchasing the Indians in the early 1970s.   But the Indians did end up in the hands of the Jacobs family in the late 80’s, and management did two brilliant things.    First, they designed and built Jacobs field.    An aesthetically perfect stadium, lined with Kentucky bluegrass on the field, and amazing vantage points for Indian fans.    Second, they hired John Hart as General Manager, who help build a team that would finish first 5 years in a row, and get to two World Series, coming within two outs of winning it all in 1997 (Hint, don’t ever mention the name Jose Mesa in a Cleveland bar).

John Hart was just the right guy at the right time.   I first perked up my awareness of Hart’s magic when he traded for and then gave a second-year outfielder named Kenny Lofton a 4 year $6.5 million dollar contract.    Contracts like that, giving a young player a long-term deal, weren’t the norm back then, but they’ve started to be commonplace now.  Prior to signing the contract, Lofton was most notably a stud college basketball, helping to bring his Arizona Wildcats to the Final Four in the NCAA tournament.   Among other moves Hart made were:

a)      Trading Joe Carter for young catcher Sandy Alomar, Jr. and infielder Carlos Baerga

b)      Drafting New York high school phenom Manny Ramirez with the 13th pick in the 1991 draft

c)       Signing Brook Jacoby, an Atlanta Braves cast-off who starred at 3B for the Indians

d)      Signed Bartolo Colon as an amateur free-agent

e)      Trading two players and cash for a light-hitting infielder named Omar Vizquel, who went on to win the next 8 Gold Gloves at shortstop


The Indians in the mid-90’s were nothing short of a wrecking machine.   Good drafting and scouting brought sluggers Jim Thome and Albert Belle to the team, and in the strike-shortened 1995 season they won 100 games out of 144 contests (would equate to roughly 113 wins in a standard 162 game season).    The teams offense peaked in 1999 when it became just the 7th team in Major League history to score 1,000 runs, as Kenny Lofton and free-agent addition Roberto Alomar confounded pitchers at the top of the order, while Richie Sexson, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez finished them off.

But all those runs and all those victories never ended up with a title.   Hargrove was gone, Charlie Manuel came in.   Manuel left, Eric Wedge came in.    Indians made two trips to the playoffs since that ‘99 season, but mostly have been bouncing between second and fourth place finishes.    They had good talent, but never the resources to keep them.   C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee, two aces of the Indians staff, and back-to-back Cy Young winners in 2007 and 2008 were traded, and in looking back nothing of substance other than outfielder Michael Brantley was received.    Ironically, one of the most lopsided trades in history was completed between the Expos and Indians back in 2002, with the Indians trading Bartolo Colon for Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens.    Lee went onto become a Cy Young winner, Sizemore was a 5-tool star until injuries stalled his career at the age of 25, and Brandon Phillips has become one of the best second basemen in baseball, albeit for the Reds after the Indians gave up on him too too early.  

For the better part of a decade, the Indians have been, well, just another hum-drum team.   In fact, they’ve finished 4th in three of the last four seasons.    They’ve been almost like a homely middle child watching their older and younger sisters go off and get married, in the form of the Red Sox and White Sox who won their titles after painfully long droughts.   Sure there are other teams that have never won a World Series, such as the Astros, Rangers, Padres, Nationals, Mariners, and my beloved Brewers.    But the Indians have a much longer and richer baseball history, and they are in the second longest active title drought in baseball (Cubs are up to an amazing 104 years without a World Series win, and are 67 years away from their last pennant).  

But maybe things are about to change.    Often titles don’t start with a huge free agent signing.   I’m quite sure the Angels and Orioles can attest to that.    But rather it’s more of a sensation, sort of watching something come together slowly but steadily.   Then suddenly everything just falls into place.   The White Sox championship in 2005 was like that.    In the nine years leading up to their title, they finished in 2nd place 7 times, and in 1st and 3rd place once each.    Sounds like a pretty good run, except in all those years combined the White Sox were only 748-708, just a few wins above .500 each year on average.   Thus it was probably more of a weak division than the White Sox being really good.   But in 2005 the White Sox WERE really good “as a team”.   No pitcher was outstanding, but Buehrle, Contreras, Garland and Freddy Garcia were all pretty good.   No one on the team scored 100 runs, and only Paul Konerko knocked in 100, as a matter of fact it was exactly 100.    But they won as they were pretty good up and down the lineup, and they played well together.

I look at the Indians this year, and I get that same sense.   They were actually pretty decent through mid-July last year, finding themselves in 2nd place, but just a few games above .500 at 45-42 (sound familiar??)    Then of course the bottom fell out and they went 23-52 the rest of the way to finish at 68-94.    Manager Manny Acta was ceremoniously fired with 6 games left in the season and Bench Coach, and former star player Sandy Alomar, Jr. was named interim manager.

But going in 2013, the Indians fans, and oh they are loyal, were given some new toys.   First, they got a new manager with some bloodlines in Cleveland.   Terry Francona only played one season for the Indians in 1988, surely not their hey-day, but Terry’s father Tito was a all-star player for Cleveland in the 1960’s, finishing 5th in the MVP race one year.  (Interestingly Larry Doby was traded by the Indians for Tito in ’59).

But as a new manager is rarely enough, the Indians G.M. Chris Antonetti used that Georgetown education to bring in a few more pieces.    First, he made a relatively daring, but strategic move in trading star outfielder Shin-Soo Choo in a 3-team deal, bringing back highly-touted prospect pitcher Trevor Bauer, who had quickly worn out his welcome in Arizona, as well as Drew Stubbs from Cincy.  While Stubbs has a wild-swinging speed/power mix approach at the plate, his presence gives the Indians another solid Centerfielder to roam their outfield along with Michael Brantley.    The Indians also brought in Mark Reynolds, yet another big strikeout/power guy, but who at 29 was possibly entering the prime of his career.  

Then the Indians did something no one could have expected.   They opened their wallets.   Big time.    While on the surface it may have seemed like a curious signing, Nick Swisher was added to the team by signing a 5-year $70 million dollar contract.   While we can all remember seeing Swisher with his huge smile and Yankee pinstripes, you must remember that he is from Ohio.   Was born there, and went to college there, starring for “THE” Ohio State University.   

Again the Indians did something else that no one expected.   They re-opened their wallet, this time signing Michael Bourn to a 5-year $60 million dollar contract.   Thus, giving the Indians their 3rd legitimate Centerfielder to play outfield for them.     Antonetti isn’t as well known as some of the other General Managers in baseball, and he’s certainly less well-known than his boss and predecessor Mark Shapiro.  But he’s making his mark, and he is showing that his 15-year apprenticeship under GM’s like Neil Huntington and Shapiro have served him and the team well.  

Making the Indians 2013 a bit sweeter is the fact that their top two starters Justin Masterson and Zack McCallister came from the Red Sox (in the Victor Martinez deal) and the Yankees (for Austin Kearns). Perhaps a little payback is always fun.     But the Indians are far from elite.   Their infield is average, and the back end of their rotation has been weak.   Their bullpen has been their saving grace as Cody Allen, Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw, Vinny Pestano and closer Chris Perez have been outstanding, with a collective ERA of around 1.50.   They have a very underrated catcher in Carlos Santana who the Indians got from the Dodgers for Casey Blake in 2008, and who is currently second in MLB with a 1.060 OPS.   

As of today, May 12, 2013, the Indians are atop the American League Central at 20-15, tied with Detroit.   They are 0-5 versus the Yankees and Red Sox, but 20-10 versus everyone else, so there’s still work to do.   I started paying closer attention to the Indians due to a friendship with a very vocal but enjoyable Indians fan that I found on twitter named @sportsyelling .     She, yes SHE, is a rabid Indians fan, and you could spend an entire afternoon watching her tweets, rather than watching the game, and you will have a better idea as to what’s happening on the field!!     We at the Cornfield surely urge you to follow her!!  As for me, I am going to keep following the Indians, as I do believe it’s time we all do. 

And a special note to you Indians fans.   You may not have won since 1948, but as Dave Wooderson said in ‘Dazed and Confused’,  “It’d be a lot cooler if you did.”   GO TRIBE!!




Sincerely,

The Colonel

SundayColonel@aol.com

Join Earl and the Colonel as they talk about baseball and all things baseball-related. We're mostly on Sunday nights at 9PM EST, but sometimes we prefer to do a post-Happy Hour show on Friday nights because normally we're idiots. But after a few cocktails we're geniuses. Until we listen to the show the next day. Sigh.



@verdantdude = Earl


@JtttcColonel = The Colonel


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Sunday, April 28, 2013

The Allen Craig Theory


April 22, 2003, just a seemingly average game in April taking place between the league royalty St. Louis Cardinals and the progressively more exciting Washington Nationals.     You wouldn’t normally think there was much rivalry between these two teams.     It would seem no two teams could be more dissimilar.   Much has been told about the Expos downward spiral, trying unsuccessfully to compete for attention of Canadian sports fans, and only rewarding whatever fans they had with one first place finish, albeit in a season in which the playoffs were never actually played.    Ironically, the only time before 2012 that the Expos/Nationals made the playoffs was during another strike-shortened season, 1981.    Meanwhile the Cardinals have had exactly one last place finish since 1920, but have managed to rack up about a dozen titles since then.   Though last year perhaps the seeds of a rivalry were born in the playoff match-up between these two historically antithetic franchises.   

In game four of the League Division Season, with the Cardinals up 2 games to 1, bottom of the ninth,  score tied 1-1, Jayson Werth, the Nationals $126 million dollar man faced Cardinals righty Lance Lynn.    Pitch after pitch was fouled off, until Lynn, perhaps frustrated with facing the same man for 13 pitches threw a fastball trying to induce Werth to make contact and be done with.   Werth  did exactly that.   He made contact, and the at bat was over.   As was the game so it turned out.    The home run to left tied the series, leaving the hometown crowd feeling, if even for a moment, that $126 million may have been money well spent.  

Now, we all love baseball for those dramatic moments, watching a game-winning home run go slowly over the outfield wall.   The dramatic scene in the movie Moneyball where Scott Hatteberg hits the home run off of steroid-rat Jason Grimsley to win the A’s twentieth consecutive game is one of the movies’ great defining moments.   We never know when those events take place, and that’s what makes it so exciting.    But what made that moment even more thrilling, or perhaps more ‘surprising’ is who actually hit the home run.   Now Jayson Werth is a fine ball-player.  Good hitter, good fielder, swift-runner, solid on-base guy.   But Jayson Werth is hardly the definition of a ‘clutch’ hitter.  But we will get back to that.  

Game 5 of that playoff series between the Nationals and the Cardinals was one of the most thrilling playoff games in recent memory.   Bryce Harper, the 19-year old uber UBER phenom tripled home Jayson Werth off of Adam Wainright in the first inning, then homered off the perennial Cy Young candidate in the third inning.   Eventually, the Nationals took a 6-0 lead, which in most times would have been more than enough.    The Cardinals clawed back, pulling to within one run, then found themselves back down two, with the score being 7-5 going into the ninth off of Nationals closer Drew Storen.    Storen, a Stanford-graduate was bred to be a closer.   A high-school pitching star, he spent his entire college and minor league career as a closer, specifically for these exact moments.   And you know when you’re a kid and you are pretending to be in these dramatic situations, you find yourself “announcing” the pretend game that you are playing.   Well, that probably didn’t happen too often in the Storen house since his father Mark Patrick probably did that for him (as Mark Patrick of MLB Network Radio was actually born Mark Storen).    Plus adding to the dramatic moment was that Drew Storen’s high school teammate was in the stadium.  None other than Lance Lynn, the guy who gave up the home run to Jayson Werth in game 4.   Buddy, you can’t make this stuff up.

In the bottom of the ninth of game 5, with Storen on the mound, the Cardinals rallied for 4 runs, including a couple of dramatic clutch hits by infielders Daniel Descalso and Peter Kozma, two formerly unheralded players from the Cardinals 2007 MLB draft.   During that 9th inning, Cardinals first basemen Allen Craig struck out with one man out and Carlos Beltran on third.     Perhaps the strikeout was not as noteworthy as the homerun by the Nationals Werth in the prior game, but perhaps it could be considered just as surprising.    See, unlike Werth, Allen Craig is most assuredly considered to be a ‘clutch hitter’.

For sake of this piece, let’s consider a clutch hitter to be one who performs in situations with runners in scoring position, as well as situations in which there are two outs with runners in scoring position (RISP, 2 Out).   Yet if you were to do research on the existence of clutch hitting, you might find that some of the brightest minds of baseball research will say that it doesn’t exist.    And they may be right.     The writers say that for a person to be a truly clutch hitter that they would need to consistently perform in those situation year over year.    There is some merit to the need of seeing consistency before you call someone a ‘clutch’ hitter.    Very rarely do you see a ‘strikeout pitcher’ who gets 200k’s one year, and 110 the next.  They are called strikeouts pitchers for a reason.   Power hitters, same thing.     Yet if there were players who did perform year-in and year-out in ‘clutch’ situations would that debunk the theory that clutch hitting was a myth??    Maybe exceptions aren’t enough to do that, but anytime statistical analysis exposes a predictable trend it does make watching the game a bit more intriguing.  

A question that keeps popping up in my mind is one I need help trying to answer.   Is every hit valued equally??    Imagine a guy who hits .500 whenever his team is up or down 4 runs or more, or a player who hits .400 when no one is on base, but .100 when runners are on base.   Each of these hitters can end up with a .330 batting average, but should they be considered productive hitters??    Yes, these are unrealistic scenarios, but it’s just as unrealistic to assume players can hit for the same general batting average in every situation.     (However there are exceptions to even that, such as Tony Gwynn who was an exceptional hitter regardless of the game situation.)

Allen Craig is one of those rare players, who thus far in his 4 year career has shown to be a consistent producer in such ‘clutch’ situations.    Let’s examine:

 

2010 Batting Average     .241

2010 BA RISP                      .258

2010 BA RISP, 2 Out         .250

 

2011 Batting Average     .315

2011 BA RISP                      .316

2011 BA RISP, 2 Out         .333

 

2012 Batting Average     .307

2012 BA RISP                      .400

2012 BA RISP, 2 Out         .313

 

 

On the surface, it looks like a minor differential between Craig’s batting average and his average in clutch situations.    In fact, let’s be realistic; it is a minor differential.   Also, note that Allen Craig was not a true regular until 2012.   His at bat totals for 2010 through 2012 were 114, 200, and 469.  However note the following.    Of all players who had 75 or more at bats each year between 2010 and 2012, only 19 players had batting averages with RISP and 2 outs higher than their overall batting average in each of those 3 years.    Allen Craig is one of those 19, but he’s also the only one to have an overall batting average of .300 in the group.  

 

The player with the greatest differential  between their overall average and their ‘BA RISP, 2 Out’ is, yep, you guessed it…. Paul Janish.   Paul freakin’ Janish. 

 

2010 Batting Average     .260

2010 BA RISP                      .386

2010 BA RISP, 2 Out         .318

 

2011 Batting Average     .214

2011 BA RISP                      .217

2011 BA RISP, 2 Out         .333

 

2012 Batting Average     .186

2012 BA RISP                      .231

2012 BA RISP, 2 Out         .286

 

What makes Paul Janish’s batting average go up almost 100 per year during those tense at bats I’m sure I don’t know.   And if you ask Bill James he will say it’s a myth, a small-sample size, an anomaly, or something other than a reliable statistical event.    But now let’s go back and review the hero of game 4 of the 2012 National League Divisional Series, Mr. Jayson Werth.

 

2010 Batting Average     .296

2010 BA RISP                      .186

2010 BA RISP, 2 Out         .139

 

2011 Batting Average     .232

2011 BA RISP                      .229

2011 BA RISP, 2 Out         .179

 

2012 Batting Average     .300

2012 BA RISP                      .250

2012 BA RISP, 2 Out         .176

 

 

Look at those declines!!   A 50 point average decline with RISP and a 110 point decrease in RISP, 2 out.   Statistical anomaly my ass.   Anyone who thinks this is a not a reliable statistical trend can, as they would say in Montreal…  embrassez mes boules.    Many people were shocked when the Nationals offered Jayson Werth such a massive contract.    Yes, he’s a fine ballplayer, but for $126M I imagine a team would expect a player to perform better in those situations.   The ole expression of ‘he never comes through in the clutch’ is often based upon the fan’s experience in watching a team over the course of a season, or seasons.   But yet a simple statistical review can show what the intelligent fan already has witnessed.   Yes it was great to see Werth hit that home run in game 4, but recall that there were no outs, and no one on base.    Over the last 3 year, Jayson Werth is a .293 hitter with no one on base.  He just also happens to be a .240 hitter with men on base, .215 with runners in scoring position, and a miserable .160 with two outs and RISP.

 

 

On the other side of the spectrum, Ryan Zimmerman is the most consistent differential producer in such situations:

 

2010 Batting Average     .307

2010 BA RISP                      .313

2010 BA RISP, 2 Out         .365

 

2011 Batting Average     .289

2011 BA RISP                      .293

2011 BA RISP, 2 Out         .368

 

2012 Batting Average     .282

2012 BA RISP                      .266

2012 BA RISP, 2 Out         .327

 

This shows that Zimmerman batting average each year goes up about 50 points in two-out situations with Runners in Scoring Position.   Now I realize that the spread would be bigger if I was to back out plate-appearances with no runners on base, but I’m trying to keep this analysis light and moderate.

 

I understand that many brighter minds than mine have done a greater level of research to prove the reliability of such trends, but I’m simply not convinced.  I watch enough baseball to realize it IS a game in which emotions can greatly affect performance.    Look at the following two comparisons:

Alex Rios

2010 Batting Average     .284

2010 BA RISP                      .306

2010 BA RISP, 2 Out         .379

 

2011 Batting Average     .227

2011 BA RISP                      .171

2011 BA RISP, 2 Out         .075

 

2012 Batting Average     .304

2012 BA RISP                      .348

2012 BA RISP, 2 Out         .233

 

Torii Hunter

2010 Batting Average     .281

2010 BA RISP                      .297

2010 BA RISP, 2 Out         .323

 

2011 Batting Average     .262

2011 BA RISP                      .279

2011 BA RISP, 2 Out         .231

 

2012 Batting Average     .313

2012 BA RISP                      .344

2012 BA RISP, 2 Out         .426

 

 

Oh we could have a field day with this.   In 2011 the White Sox were a mess.   Adam Dunn joined the team and couldn’t hit Tim Collins’ weight.   Ozzie Guillen lost control, and his “managerial magic” finally ran out.   I question that he ever had it.   An entertaining chap, but he clearly unraveled, and has continued to do so.   Alex Rios had no ability to pick up the slack, and his already lackadaisical approach slid deeper and deeper until had had zero motivation to get anything out of his God-given talent.    He was 4 for 53 with RISP, 2 Outs.    The man was making $12,500,000 in 2011, and in 53 plate appearances with two outs and RISP managed 3 singles and one double.   That’s it.    In 2012, under new White Sox manager Robin Ventura, Rios had a nice bounce back year, but still under-performed in those situations. 

 

Torii Hunter on the other hand truly elevated his game in 2012.   It didn’t hurt that Hunter was hitting behind Trout and ahead of Pujols.    But at 36, Hunter was playing for a new contract, and he did pick a heck of a time to hit .300 for the first time in his 15-year career.     Hunter historically in his career hit a home run every 25 at-bats, and 61% of his hits were singles.  Last year he hit a homer ever 33 at bats, and 75% of his hits were singles.   Plus as you see his performance in the clutch sky-rocketed.   All in all, a very solid and perhaps ‘smart’ change to his hitting approach landed the 37 year old a brand new $26 million dollar contract with the Tigers.

But now let us return to how the article started.    The day before the April 22nd game between the Cardinals and Nationals, it’s Sunday April 21st my buddy Earl and I were having a discussion on our weekly podcast “Just Talking to the Cornfield”, and as is usually the case, were are in the midst of a debate in which he eventually wins.   I am discussing what I call “The Allen Craig Theory” of how players can perform in higher-pressure situations.   I have prepared for the discussion by compiling some statistical evidence, including the fact that since 1960 the player with the highest career batting average with RISP is Mr. Craig, (see the top 10 below):

 

Highest Career Avg (RISP, minimum 200 AB’s with RISP)

Player                                   Career Avg                          Career RISP                        Differential

Allen Craig                           .296                                        .357                                        +.061

Joey Votto                          .315                                        .351                                        +.036

Tony Gwynn                      .338                                        .349                                        +.011

Joe Mauer                          .322                                        .343                                        +.021

Rod Carew                          .328                                        .339                                        +.011

Roberto Clemente          .317                                        .337                                        +.020

Albert Pujols                      .324                                        .336                                        +.012

So Taguchi                           .279                                        .331                                        +.052

Miguel Cabrera                 .319                                        .329                                        +.010

Adrian Gonzalez               .295                                        .329                                        +.034

 

 

Sure enough, 7th inning, with one out and runners on 1st and 3rd, Allen Craig lines a single to LF off of Phili reliever Chad Durbin to give the Cardinals a 3-2 lead.    Buster Olney tweets:

 

Buster Olney@Buster_ESPN21 Apr  And the Cardinals with another hit in RISP... More damage from Allen Craig...

And yes I’m feeling good about my theory.   Now let’s move onto that April 22nd game between the Cardinals and Nationals.  There is no score in the 3rd inning, but the Cardinals have men on 1st and 2nd two outs.  Allen Craig comes through, hitting a double to left field, two runs in.    Later in the game, 8th inning, the speedy Nationals outfielder Denard Span has led off with a single.   It’s a 3-2 game, and Werth simply has to get that runner to 2nd base.  If he can’t knock him in, he has to at least get him into scoring position.   Yet, he strikes out leaving the runner at 1st.   Cardinals win 3-2

 

Next game, 0-0 in the fourth inning, Shane Robinson of the Cardinals leads off with a single, Allen Craig doubles him home and the Cardinals take the lead.  In the sixth inning, Washington has men on 1st and 3rd, one out, Jayson Werth comes up.  The score is now 2-0 Cardinals.  Jayson Werth sees one pitch, and pops it up to second base.    No grounder to score the runner, no sac fly, no walk, just a one-pitch pop up, runners are stranded.  Eighth inning, same game, score is still 2-0 Cardinals, and once again Denard Span is on base, this time he’s at 2nd after a wild pitch.  Jayson Werth hits a soft ground ball to shortstop, Cardinals win 2-0.

 

April 24th, third game of the series, Cardinals jump to a quick 3-0 lead against Strasburg, but in the 6th the Nationals have a rally.   Strasburg, the pitcher trying to help his cause leads off with a single.  Denard Span follows that with another single.   Jayson Werth is up, with no outs and 2 men on base.    He promptly hits a ground ball to the Cardinals pitcher, who goes to first to retire Werth.    Cardinals win 4-2.   Yes later that game Werth hits a stat-padding solo shot to make it a 4-2 game.   But in pressure situations, with runners on front of him, he has failed to deliver, as is often the case.

 

Statistical anomaly, unpredictable trend.  Say what you will.  In 2013, Jayson Werth is hitting .275, but only .240 with RISP and .091 (1-11) with RISP, 2 Outs.   Allen Craig by comparison is hitting .262, sure it’s a lower overall average when compared to Werth.  But Allen Craig is also hitting .440 with RISP, and a ridiculous .636 (7-11) with RISP, 2 Outs.     Jayson Werth is making $16 million this year, Allen Craig, $1.75 million.    This would be a great time to mock the name “werth” as in who is “werth” their money.   But nah.    Let’s keep it straight.   Fact is, Allen Craig has probably been playing fearlessly since he was a kid.   He hit a home run in his first college at bat, and for those two don’t remember, he came off the bench as a pinch-hitter in games 1 and 2 of the 2011 World Series, and delivered singles in the ole RISP, 2 Out situation becoming the only player with 2 go-ahead RBI’s as a pinch hitter in the history of the World Series.   And these were his first two at-bats in World Series play.    So I ask you again.  Is this an unpredictable trend, or perhaps is there something to “The Allen Craig Theory”.    They say time always tells, but time has already told us.
 
 

Sunday, September 23, 2012

And the NL MVP is..... Chris Nelson??!!

About two weeks ago I was doing something that I've reluctantly done from time to time.   Driving home from work, I wasn't in the mood to fidget with my Sirius receiver, in hopes of finding the perfect cruising song.  Something along the lines of "Tommy Tucker" by Moe or just about anything from Umphrey's McGee will help me pass the time.   Knowing all to well that I'd end up with something far less enjoyable I dared turn on New York sports radio.    Now granted, me and my pal The Big Earlbowski do our own little weekly ditty on the internet via talkshoe, but we rarely drone on for 45 minutes about whether or not Joe Girardi should have pinch hit for Jayson Nix in the 6th inning, or whether Terry Collins stuck with a starter one batter too long.   Those conversations may be fun to have with your friends, or over lunch, but the empty content that's so often on the 'big' radio shows just makes it brutal to listen to.   Not to mention the great societal contributors who call in with questions like.... "Hey I'd like to tawk 'bout da Mets.   So, um, what do yoo tink 'bout da Mets??"   And while I've traveled here and there and listened to sports radio in about 20 different states, only in the Steinbrenner-infused twisted minds of Yankee fans will you hear caller after call propose trades like "Supposen the Yankees can package a guy like Brett Gardner with a young pitcher like Ivan Nova, to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.   That could really help dem out."    However, amidst the painful rhetoric, one caller made a comment that sent my mind off into a lovely green pasture full of ..... well, I guess full of baseball stats.    For about the 8000th time, a caller stated how 'bad' Alex Rodriguez is at driving in runs, and as usual the person was tossing around those horrible definitive terms such as "he never...." and "every time he....."   Using such concrete words annoys me to such a degree, simply because as a person who enjoy statistics as much as I do once someone uses one of those words I immediately tune them out as whatever statement they are making must be wrong.    And yet even I accept that being 'wrong' doesn't necessarily mean anything concrete either, as can be explained by this scene from the "Big Bang Theory":






Sheldon: I've spent the last 3 hours in an online debate in the DC Comics Batman chatroom and I need your help.
Stuart: Oh yeah, those guys can be very stubborn, what's the topic?
Sheldon: I am asserting: in the event that Batman's death proves permanent, the original Robin, Dick Grayson, is the logical successor the Batcowl.
Stuart: Ooh, Sheldon, I'm afraid you couldn't be more wrong.
Sheldon: "More wrong"? Wrong is an absolute state and not subject to gradation.
Stuart: Of course it is; it's a little wrong to say a tomato is a vegetable, it's very wrong to say it's a suspension bridge.



As is often the case, I accept that I can be wrong.   Merely look at the title of this piece and it doesn't take much to see how wrong I can be.   Chris Nelson, the Rockies third basemen, for MVP??  He has a .290 / 9 /47 slash, doesn't even play full-time, and is a below average defender.    Of course he can't be MVP.  Yet Chris Nelson does something better than anyone in the National League, and if it wasn't for that drive home from work two weeks ago, and that inane callers empty comment, I may never have known about it.

Before I go off onto this journey, I want to share a story that my brilliantly entertaining co-host Earl ( @verdantdude ) shared on our show once or twice. 

The story goes that in 1925, at the age of 38, Ty Cobb was speaking with a reporter, and expressing his disdain for all the attention that sluggers such as Babe Ruth were receiving.   Cobb, considered his "style" of playing baseball to be more strategic or perhaps scientific, and that he could hit home runs "whenever he wished".   To back up his boast, Cobb went out and had himself a 6-6 day, including 3 home runs.  He then followed it up with 2 more home runs the next day.  Point proven, Cobb returned to his prior approach to hitting.    Of course it should be noted that many writers including ESPNs Dave Schoenfield will look to refute this story, but any true fan of baseball can accept a little "Lie Within the Lore".   As someone once said, if the amount of people who said they were at the game when Maris hit homer number 61 they'd have had to have added a few hundred-thousand seats in Yankee Stadium to accommodate them all.

No one can discount Cobb's mastery as a hitter and even if the story wasn't true, it probably could be true.  Using a more contemporary example, there are countless stories of Ichiro Suzuki mechanically drilling home run after home run in batting practice, only to return to his own "style" of baseball during the game.  He himself explained it in a New York Times piece, and the reasoning sounds eerily familiar to the Cobb story:

"Chicks who dig home runs aren't the ones who appeal to me. I think there's sexiness in infield hits because they require technique. I'd rather impress the chicks with my technique than with my brute strength. Then, every now and then, just to show I can do that, too, I might flirt a little by hitting one out."

Unbeknownst to many fans is the fact that Ichiro, the man with the sweet left-handed swing that produced over 3,800 hits in Japan and the United States is actually a natural right-handed hitter.  He taught himself to be a full-time left-handed hitter to be 2 steps closer to first base, which was better suited for his hitting method.

I bring all this up, because these 'strategic' hitters, much like a world class poker player, are often looking for that advantage or the "tell".   And hitting with runners on base is likely more advantageous to the hitter than hitting with the bases empty.  The pitchers focus is split, the infielders are leaning one way or the other, the outfielders are taking extra steps, perhaps not always the right way.   In Ichiro's first season with the Mariners he proved he was able to exploit these weaknesses better than anyone as his batting average with the bases empty was .313, yet in 137 at bats with runners on base (ROB) he hit an amazing .420.   With runners in scoring position (RISP) his average rose to a remarkable .445.   With numbers like that its not at all surprising that Ichiro won the MVP.   But lets examine a bit deeper.

In 2001, Ichiro had the following at bats:

59 times with a runner at 2nd base
29 times with runners at 1st and 2nd
18 times with runners at 1st and 3rd
8 times with runners at 2nd and 3rd
12 times with a runner on 3rd
11 times with bases loaded

Subtracting for home runs (in which he effectively knocked himself in), in the above at bats Ichiro had 61 RBI, or what I call BKI (Baserunners Knocked-In).    Thus, Ichiro had at bats (i.e. not including walks) with 315 runners on base, including 156 in scoring position and he had 61 BKI.   That equates to 19% of the runners on base and 39% of the runners in scoring position.   Numbers like that are equivalent to the 2012 production of.... nope, not Ryan Braun, not Miguel Cabrera, and not even Joey Votto.... but of..... say Coco Crisp.

Now I'm not trying to say Ichiro wasn't an amazing player.  His offensive abilities and his defensive prowess are world-class, yet as the object of baseball is to merely outscore your opponent.  However all the hits that Ichiro had in 2001 weren't as productive as one may think.   Its hard to fathom that that such a ridiculous batting average with RISP of .445 wouldn't lead to record-breaking production.    Of course my first thought is that most of his hits were singles that didn't score runners from second or doubles that didn't score runners from first, and that may be the case.   But the point of this piece is NOT to discount the amazing achievement of certain players like Ichiro, yet rather its to point out those that are producing beyond what you may otherwise see in the leaderboards.

Case in point, John Jaso of Seattle.    The first thing that I think of when his name comes up is his OBA skills.   Good catcher, generally hit about 25 doubles and 12 HR in the minors, and he's got close to a .400 on-base % this year, so his pitch recognition skills are surely above average.   Yet I don't think of him as an RBI guy.   He's not a full-time player as yet, and he's still 6th or 7th on his team in RBIs, while manager Eric Wedge keeps rolling out Miguel Olivo and his .228 OBA.   That's right..... the starting catcher in Seattle has an OBA about half that of Jaso.    Yet OBA is surely not the only skill that Jaso possesses.     Last year in Tampa, the young catcher hit a pitiful .167 with RISP.   Though young and talented, Tampa traded him to Seattle for Josh Lueke, a pitcher one accused, and generally convicted of and sent to jail for rape while in the Texas organization.   So while Lueke had an awful season in the minors and in his 3 awful innings in Tampa, Jaso seemingly used his pitch-recognition skills to drive in runs in key situations.   He's hitting .394 with RISP and in plate appearances with a runner at 3rd or with runners at first and third he's hitting .667.   But ok, its only 18 at bats..... yet in those at bats he's had 27 runners on base and 18 in scoring position and he has 19 BKI (again..... base-runners knocked in).   All told, the catcher with the good-eye who was traded for a convict has a 22% TROB (scoring 22% of all runners on base when he is at bat) and 48% TRISP (scoring 48% of all runners in scoring position when he is at bat).

At this point, those numbers may not mean much because you probably need some comparisons.   So for 2012, here goes:

John Jaso - 22% TROB / 48% TRISP
Prince Fielder - 23% TROB  /  52% TRISP
Adrian Beltre - 18% TROB /  38% TRISP
Mike Trout - 21% TROB / 41% TRISP
Derek Jeter - 15% TROB / 28% TRISP
Bryce Harper - 12% TROB / 26% TRISP

(TROB = Total runners knocked in that were on base during a players at bat)
(TRISP = Total runners knocked in that were in scoring position during a players at bat)


And for those Yankee fans who cry that A-Rod is "the worst clutch hitter ever!!", well, he's not the worst, but for the money............

Alex Rodriguez - 14% TROB / 28% TRISP

Not too spectacular.   Yet in the midst of a great season his teammate.....

Robinson Cano - 13% TROB / 32% TRISP

Not much better.   Lets have some more fun looking at the incredibly consistent Robby Cano:


2010:  626 AB, 41 Doubles, 29 Homers, .319 average
2011:  623 AB, 46 Doubles, 28 Homers, .302 average
2012:  572 AB, 42 Doubles, 30 Homers, .297 average

Simply amazing stats for any hitter, but even more impressive for a gold glove caliber 2B.   Hard to be more consistent than that.   But how about if I throw in one more stat:

2010:  109 RBI
2011:  118 RBI
2012:  78 RBI (on pace for 84)

And here's why:

2010:  20% TROB  / 40% TRISP
2011:  23% TROB / 51% TRISP
2012:  13% TROB / 32% TRISP

Quite simply Cano is just not driving in runners in those situations as he has in the past.  So while his overall numbers are consistent, he's simply not being as "productive".

And that brings us to Mr. Nelson and his NL Leading 25% TROB.

Yeah, Chris Nelson is leading the National League in knocking in the most runners (BKI) who are on base (TROB) when he receives an at-bat.   Sure it may only be a point or so higher than players like Mauer, David Ortiz, Cargo and Fielder..... but you'd expect solid production in key situation from those hitters.  Yet Chris Nelson..... probably not the first guy that comes to mind.    Nelson's numbers, just like Cano's, show that productivity isn't something that can be seen by looking at ones overall stat line.   And Ichiro's RISP number in his MVP season also shows that productivity is a bit more complex than what a single stat can show.    The classic definition of productivity means generating more output with the same, or lesser, input.   Nelson's 2012 season is therefore a very productive one.   Surely a lot more than people recognize.

Here are a few other players whose TROB and TRISP numbers stand out:

Kyle Seager -22% TROB / 42% TRISP - (similar to teammate Jaso he's having a productive year)
Paul Konerko - 15% TROB / 36% TRISP - (I expected a bit higher rate)
Brandon Inge - 21% TROB / 40% TRISP - (amazing for a .226 hitter)
Giancarlo Stanton - 18% TROB / 41% TRISP - (Puts Inge in perspective??)

The Best:

Joey Votto - 64% TRISP
Josh Hamilton - 28% TROB

Special Mention:
Miguel Montero - 24% TROB / 55% TRISP


And of course..... The Worst:
Dernard Span - 13% TRISP

Zack Cozart - 7% TROB

Special Mention:
Jeff "WTF" Francouer - 10% TROB  / 23% TRISP


For fun I decided to take a look at some of the games most well-regarded clutch hitters (all career numbers):

Willie McCovey - 20% TROB / 44% TRISP
Eddie Murray - 19% TROB / 43% TRISP
Roberto Clemente - 19% TROB / 41% TRISP

And for all of his opinion of who should make the Hall of Fame:
Reggie Jackson - 18% TROB / 39% TRISP

To put Jackson in perspective, his numbers show that Eddie Murray, who had a well-earned reputation as a "clutch" hitter, knocked in 120 more runs in similar situations as Mr. October.  

Jacksons numbers are more in line with another 'underperformer'
Jermaine Dye - 17% TROB / 36% TRISP

Yet even Jermaine Dye's performance far outpaces the worst of the so-called "power hitters".   Though he had a rather short career of 9 seasons, Richard Hidalgo had 20 home runs in 4 of them including 44 in 2000, however he ended up with a 16% TROB and a 33% TRISP.


Other players of note:

Pat Tabler, who famously had a .489 career batting average with the bases load.    Yet even that only pushed his career numbers to:   18% TROB / 37% TRISP.   But please note, those career numbers are actually very good for a player who wasn't known as a power hitter.

Rennie Stennett is known as the only player since 1900 to get 7 hits in a non-extra inning game.   However the Pittsburgh infielder should be known for something else, as he has the highest spread of batting average with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) compared to at bats with no RISP.    Stennett hit .312 with RISP compared to .263 in other at bats, a difference of .049.   On the opposite side of the spectrum is another former Pittsburgh player Al Martin, who surely was not a bad player, evidenced by 6 seasons in which he hit over .280.    Yet for some reason with runners in scoring position Martin had a career batting average of only .242 (see the comparison below).



Al Martin - 4,242 AB  132 Home Runs,  .276 / .339 / .444
Rennie Stennett - 4,521 AB   41 Home Runs, .274 / .304 / .359

You would think that the guy with the 91 more home runs and almost a 100 points higher in his slugging percentage would be so much more productive.   However, here is one more stat:

Al Martin - 485 RBI
Rennie Stennett - 432 RBI

A lot closer than the basic stat line would suggest.... and here's why:

Al Martin - 15% TROB / 31% TRISP
Rennie Stennett - 17% TROB / 43% TRISP

The primary difference is clearly the percentage of runners knocked in (BKI) with runners in scoring position (TRISP).  And just for fun, lets compare the light-hitting Rennie Stennett to some of the games greats

Rennie Stennett - 17% TROB / 43% TRISP
Eddie Murray - 19% TROB / 43% TRISP
Roberto Clemente - 19% TROB / 41% TRISP
Reggie Jackson - 18% TROB / 39% TRISP

That's production Rennie!!



Awwww, he looks embarrassed. 

And finally..... who are the best hitters.   The men who knocked in the most runners who were on base when they were at bat (TROB) or who knocked in the most runners when at bat with runners in scoring position (TRISP).  [Please note that complete data on players like Gherig, Ruth, Dimaggio, Williams were not available.   In addition, I do not include players like Bonds or Manny for 'obvious' reasons.]   So.......... here are....

The BEST:

First, the Colorado boys (dilute if you wish):
Helton - 22% TROB / 47% TRISP
Walker - 20% TROB / 44% TRISP

And now that that's out of the way.........

6) Mo Vaughn - 21% / 43%
5) Mike Sweeney - 21% / 43% (How 'bout that!!)
4) Willie McCovey - 20% / 44%
3) Willie Mays - 19% / 46%
2) Hank Aaron - 20% / 46%

And if you didn't know, ya SHOULDA known.

1) Mickey Mantle - 20% / 47%


With Mantle, there is so often a bit of lie within the lore.   But clearly there's a lot of reasons for the lore.



Thanks for listening,

Colonel Sunday


Just Talking to the Cornfield is baseball talk show that often goes horribly wrong.  Join Earl and the Colonel as they talk about baseball and all things baseball-related. We're mostly on Sunday nights at 9PM EST, but sometimes we prefer to do a post-Happy Hour show on Friday nights because normally we're idiots. But after a few cocktails we're geniuses. Until we listen to the show the next day. Sigh


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